The NFL has long been called a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” league, and nowhere is that truer than at the running back position. While first-round RBs arrive with hype and expectations, it’s often the late-round running backs and undrafted free agents who surprise the league. 

From Alfred Morris to James Robinson to Phillip Lindsay and now Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, and Tony Pollard, history shows that rushing production often comes from unexpected places. 

But while these hidden gems thrive early, their careers frequently follow the same cycle: breakout success → regression → replacement (often accelerated when a new coaching staff arrives). Let’s break down why. 

Why Late-Round Running Backs Succeed in the NFL 

1. Opportunity + Volume Matter More Than Draft Capital 

Touches equal production. When injuries, depth chart shifts, or coaching decisions open the door, late-round RBs seize their chance. 

• Alfred Morris (2012, 6th round): 335 carries, 1,613 yards, 13 TDs as a rookie. 

• James Robinson (2020, UDFA): 1,070 rushing yards + 49 receptions in year one. 

• Kyren Williams (2023, 5th round): 1,144 rushing yards and 15 TDs in just 12 games. 

👉 Williams is the latest proof that draft pedigree matters less than volume in today’s NFL. 

2. Scheme Fit Beats Raw Traits 

Many successful late-round backs thrive because their style matches their system: 

• Morris: Perfect in Mike Shanahan’s zone running scheme. 

• Robinson: A patient, downhill runner in Jacksonville’s gap-heavy offense. 

• Chase Brown (Bengals, 2023): Averaged 4.9 YPC, flashing bursts as a change-of-pace runner behind Joe Mixon. 

• Tony Pollard (Cowboys): Excelled in space (5.1 YPC in first 3 years) when paired with Ezekiel Elliott. 

3. Cost Efficiency = Roster Value 

Late-round RBs are cheap difference-makers. 

• Williams produced top-5 scrimmage yards per game in 2023 while earning under $1M. 

• Brown gives Cincinnati explosive depth at a fraction of a veteran’s price. 

That flexibility allows front offices to allocate big money toward quarterbacks, receivers, and pass-rushers. 

Why Late-Round Running Backs Regress 

1. Wear and Tear Is Brutal 

Running backs absorb the most hits in football. Over 60% of RBs with 250+ carries in their first two years decline in YPC within three seasons. 
  

2. NFL Defenses Adjust Quickly 

Defensive coordinators adapt. Morris lost efficiency once Washington became predictable. Robinson saw stacked boxes. Pollard struggled once Dallas used him as an every-down back, exposing his limitations between the tackles. 

3. Limited Skill Sets 

Many late-round RBs shine in one area but lack complete versatility: 

• Lindsay (blocking issues), 

• Morris (passing-game liability), 

• Robinson (lack of explosiveness), 

• Pollard (better as a rotational weapon than a bell cow). 

Why New Coaching Staffs Replace Late-Round RBs 

1. No Loyalty to Inherited Players – Robinson was replaced by Travis Etienne once Urban Meyer arrived. 

2. Scheme Shifts – A zone back might not fit in a power scheme. 

3. Draft Supply Chain— Each year, 20+ NFL-ready RBs enter the draft. Statistically, over 50% of teams replace their leading rusher within three years. 

Case Study: Chase Brown vs. Tony Pollard 

Two late-round RBs. Two very different storylines. 
  

• Chase Brown = The Sleeper. Young, efficient, and waiting for his shot. Could be the next Kyren Williams if given volume. 

• Tony Pollard = The Warning. He proved dangerous in a complementary role but regressed when defenses keyed on him as the main weapon. 

The Cycle of Late-Round Running Backs 

Kyren Williams, Chase Brown, and Tony Pollard perfectly capture the paradox of late-round RBs: 

• Williams looks like a star, but durability is already a question. 

• Brown is an exciting sleeper, but scalability is untested. 

• Pollard showed the ceiling—and the decline—of late-round backs asked to carry too much. 

In the end, late-round running backs are the NFL’s most replaceable stars and its best bargains. They succeed when opportunity, scheme, and health align but fade quickly when volume, injury, or coaching shifts turn against them. 

👉That’s the late-round RB paradox: they shine brightly, cheaply, and unexpectedly—but rarely for long.