Gridiron Groundworks

For the true Workhorse

Category: Draft Strategies

  • 5 NFL Rookie Sleepers to Watch in 2025

    1. Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt (Washington Commanders)

    Jacory Croskey-Merritt, affectionately known as “Bill,” is emerging as one of the most compelling sleeper stories of the 2025 rookie class. A seventh-round pick, his rise in Washington’s camp has been nothing short of remarkable. With standout practices, highlight-reel runs, and buzz that even fans on the fence caught, he’s quickly become a camp darling The Washington PostHogs Haven.

    His journey hasn’t been straightforward: eligibility controversies at Alabama State and Arizona restricted his college play, ultimately delaying his development The Washington Post. Yet that adversity shaped him into a determined athlete hungry for an opportunity—one he’s seizing through special teams, blocking, and return duties while also showing flashes as a downhill runner with excellent vision The Washington PostHogs HavenCommandersRoto Street Journal.

    Sleeper takeaway: In leagues that reward versatility and grit, Croskey-Merritt is a high-reward, low-cost late-round dart. His special teams value alone could secure his roster spot—and if injuries strike, he’s in prime position to seize bigger roles.

    2. Bhayshul Tuten (Jacksonville Jaguars)

    Bhayshul Tuten, the Jaguars’ fourth-round pick, may not have the highest draft status, but fantasy analysts and pundits see him as a sleeper with upside. With uncertainty in Jacksonville’s backfield, fantasy veteran Matthew Berry named Tuten among his top 10 late-round running back targets in 2025 drafts NBC Sports.

    Tuten brings a unique blend of speed and production. In college, he amassed massive rushing numbers—over 3,700 yards and 77 touchdowns at Paulsboro High School—and continued that success at North Carolina A&T and Virginia Tech NFL Draft BuzzJaguars.

    However, he’s currently behind established backs like Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby on the depth chart, and he’s recently battled a hamstring flare-up FantasyProsWikipediaBlack and Teal.

    Sleeper takeaway: If you’re drafting late and seeking depth in PPR or return-heavy rosters, Tuten’s combination of rookie upside and athletic pedigree makes him worth a flyer. If injuries emerge or he impresses in camp, he could carve out a useful role.

    3. Jaydon Blue (Dallas Cowboys)

    Jaydon Blue was selected in the fifth round and brings serious bang-for-your-buck upside to the Cowboys’ offense. A speedster from Texas with receiving chops, he’s drawn attention from Mike Vrabel and the Patriots pre-draft—as well as Cowboys coaching staff aiming to inject dynamic playmakers into their backfield Pats PulpitAthlon SportsNFL.com. He’s already scored a preseason TD and shown the quick-cut ability that jumps off the tape Dallas CowboysCBSSports.com.

    Yet the Cowboys’ RB room isn’t barren—veterans like Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders exist—but with a revamped offense focused on speed and versatility, Blue could slip in as a gadget piece with bigger upside Blogging The BoysBleacher Report.

    Sleeper takeaway: For fantasy managers chasing upside, especially in PPR formats, Blue offers a potent blend of explosiveness, receiving skill, and opportunity in a creative offense.

    4. Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars)

    While not a traditional running back, including Brian Thomas Jr. here underscores positionless fantasy value. His rookie wideout season was elite—more than 1,200 receiving yards, 10 TDs after 87 receptions—and he shattered Jaguars rookie records Roto Street JournalFantasyPros.

    Fantasy analysts are projecting him as a WR1-level talent, drawing comparisons to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson—a rare feat PFSN. New Jaguars coach Liam Coen plans to feature him heavily in 2025, making Thomas one of the most hyped second-year players in fantasy NBC SportsCBSSports.com.

    Sleeper takeaway: If you’ve got a flex slot and want to think outside the RB box, Thomas offers RB-level versatility and ceiling with WR production. A sneaky value pick with sky-high upside if your league allows positional flexibility.

    5. Ollie Gordon II (Miami Dolphins)

    Ollie Gordon II, drafted in the sixth round by Miami, doesn’t come with the same buzz as others—but his physical profile and college dominance can’t be ignored. He was a consensus All-American in 2023, racked up over 1,700 rushing yards and 20+ TDs, and won the Doak Walker and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year awards WikipediaMiami Dolphins.

    Preseason glimpses have been positive—solid carries, acclimating to the pro game—especially valuable in a Dolphins backfield hit by injuries to Jaylen Wright and Alexander Mattison NFL.comCBSSports.com.

    There’s some skepticism too; early reports suggested he might underwhelm Phin Phanatic. Still, size, physicality, and circumstance could converge to give him opportunity.

    Sleeper takeaway: In deeper or dynasty formats, Gordon offers bold potential. If Miami’s veteran backs face setbacks, his downhill style and pedigree make him a prime handcuff-to-watch.

    Summary Table

    PlayerWhy They’re Sleeper-WorthyRisk Factors
    Jacory Croskey-MerrittGrit, special teams value, training camp hypeLate-round pick, depth chart crowded
    Bhayshul TutenSpeed, pedigree, draft capitalBehind veterans, hamstring concerns
    Jaydon BlueExplosive dual-threat, camp momentumLearning curve, RB room competition
    Brian Thomas Jr.Elite rookie WR, position-flex valueNot an RB, competition at WR
    Ollie Gordon IIPhysical runner, college accolades, camp opportunityLow draft spot, needs injury cue

    Final Thoughts

    These five rookies embody different sleeper archetypes:

    • Croskey-Merritt: gritty, versatile, high special-teams ceiling.
    • Tuten: long-term athletic upside, late-round dart.
    • Blue: dynamic and explosive fits in creative game plans.
    • Thomas Jr.: fantasy crossover appeal, elite WR-equivalent production.
    • Gordon II: pound-the-ball bruiser with sleeper handcuff potential.

    Each brings upside that far exceeds their draft position. In deeper formats or redraft leagues where upside trumps floor, they’re must-consider gambles.

  • Top Fantasy RB Values for 2025 Draft Round

    Best Running Back Values in Each Round of 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts

    Finding the best running back values in each round can make or break your 2025 fantasy football draft. While elite RBs go off the board early, the smartest fantasy managers know you can build a championship roster by scooping up value picks in the middle and late rounds.

    In this guide, we’ll break down the top fantasy football RB values for every draft round—from reliable veterans to breakout sleepers. Whether you’re playing in PPR, half-PPR, or standard leagues, these running backs give you the most upside for the price.

    Why Drafting RB Value Matters

    Running backs are the most volatile position in fantasy. Injuries, coaching changes, and offensive line play can make or break a season. Instead of reaching for hype picks, target RB values at their average draft position (ADP). This ensures you’re getting maximum upside without overspending early capital.

    Round 3–4 Running Back Values

    By this stage, most elite RBs are gone. But several discounted RB1s are still on the board:

    Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers

    Jacobs is being drafted in Round 3 in many leagues, yet he offers true RB1 production in a revamped Packers offense. He’s a workhorse with proven volume and touchdown upside.

    Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints

    Kamara remains a PPR goldmine. Despite his age, he benefits from one of the friendliest RB schedules in 2025. A top-12 RB at an RB2 price makes him a screaming value.

    Kyren Williams – Los Angeles Rams

    Williams thrived last year, and despite added depth in LA’s backfield, he projects for heavy usage. He’s a steady RB2 that you can draft in Round 4.

    Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers

    Quietly a breakout in 2024, Hubbard’s role looks safe in Carolina’s offense. At his ADP, he’s one of the best fantasy football RB sleepers in the mid rounds.

    Round 4–5 Running Back Values

    This is where workhorse veterans become league-winning values.

    James Conner – Arizona Cardinals

    Every year fantasy managers fade Conner—and every year he delivers. His goal-line role and consistent touches make him one of the safest RB picks in Round 4–5.

    James Cook – Buffalo Bills

    Cook is the perfect RB2 target. He topped 1,200 scrimmage yards in 2024 and remains heavily involved in Buffalo’s passing game. For PPR leagues, he’s one of the best running back steals of 2025.

    Round 6–7 Running Back Values

    Now you’re hunting for upside RB2s who can push into RB1 territory.

    D’Andre Swift – Chicago Bears

    Reunited with OC Ben Johnson, Swift is in a system tailored to his strengths. With 1,300+ scrimmage yards in back-to-back years, Swift is a mid-round RB breakout candidate.

    Isiah Pacheco – Kansas City Chiefs

    Before injuries slowed him down, Pacheco was pacing for a top-10 RB finish. In Round 7, getting the starting RB for Patrick Mahomes’ offense is a massive fantasy football value pick.

    Round 8–10 Running Back Values

    This is the sweet spot for depth and sleeper stashes.

    Bhayshul Tuten – Jacksonville Jaguars

    One of the most explosive college RBs in 2024, Tuten is a deep sleeper with big-play potential. If opportunity strikes, he could emerge as a late-round fantasy football steal.

    Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Washington Commanders

    Going undrafted in many leagues, Croskey-Merritt could carve out real touches. A must-have for Zero-RB drafters.

    Sean Tucker – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    A name to remember in Round 10+, Tucker has flashed explosiveness and could climb the depth chart quickly.

    Round 11+ Running Back Sleepers & Handcuffs

    Late rounds are all about high-upside stashes.

    Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots

    Still ranked outside the top 35 RBs, Stevenson could easily lead New England’s backfield. At his price, he’s a great fantasy RB sleeper pick.

    Isaac Guerendo – San Francisco 49ers

    With Christian McCaffrey carrying an injury history, Guerendo is the handcuff you can’t ignore. He could see standalone value in Kyle Shanahan’s RB-friendly scheme.

    Tyler Allgeier – Atlanta Falcons

    Behind Bijan Robinson but entering a contract year, Allgeier is one injury away from becoming a league-winner.

    Will Shipley – Philadelphia Eagles

    A rookie with pass-catching chops, Shipley is free at the end of drafts. If he earns a role behind Saquon Barkley, he could smash in PPR leagues.

    Expert RB Value Draft Strategy

    • Zero-RB Strategy: Load up on WRs early, then draft RB values like Conner, Swift, and Pacheco in the middle rounds.
    • Anchor RB Strategy: Draft one stud RB early, then stack mid-round RBs (Kamara, Cook) for depth.
    • Late-Round Lottery Tickets: Always leave your draft with upside stashes like Guerendo, Shipley, or Tucker.

    Final Thoughts: Best Running Back Values by Round

    Here’s a quick cheat sheet of the best fantasy football RB values for 2025:

    • Round 3–4: Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, Kyren Williams, Chuba Hubbard
    • Round 5: James Cook, James Conner
    • Round 6–7: D’Andre Swift, Isiah Pacheco
    • Round 8–10: Bhayshul Tuten, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Sean Tucker
    • Round 11+: Rhamondre Stevenson, Isaac Guerendo, Tyler Allgeier, Will Shipley

    Drafting smart RB values in every round ensures you build a deep, flexible roster ready to handle injuries and bye weeks. Don’t chase hype—target these running back sleepers and steals to win your league in 2025.

  • Elite commitee backs

    Here’s the funny thing about “timeshare” running backs: the label scares drafters… and that fear creates the very edge that turns a few of them into league-winners. In today’s NFL—where committees are the norm, coaches lean into matchup leverage, and passing-game usage drives weekly ceilings—splitting snaps doesn’t disqualify a back from being elite in fantasy. In 2024 we saw perfect case studies: Jahmyr Gibbs thriving next to David Montgomery in Detroit, and De’Von Achane detonating slates even while sharing the Miami backfield with Raheem Mostert. Let’s break down how it happens—and how to spot the next one.

    The three ingredients of an “elite in a committee”

    1) Pass-game dominance (targets > carries).
    Targets are worth ~2.5x a carry in PPR once you stack in yardage and TD rates. If a “1B” back actually leads the backfield in routes and two-minute/third-down snaps, he can outscore the so-called starter on fewer touches. That’s exactly how Jahmyr Gibbs separated in 2024—he finished as the RB1 in total PPR points despite sharing early-down and goal-line work with David Montgomery. Gibbs’ week-to-week spike plays and receiving volume pulled him clear of the pack. FantasyProsEat Drink and Sleep Football

    2) TD insulation via a productive offense.
    Committees sting less when your team lives in the red zone. Detroit kept both backs fantasy-relevant because the offense created so many goal-to-go snaps that Gibbs and Montgomery literally set a record for most games with TDs by a RB duo, scoring in the same game 11 times by late November. That “rising tide” made both usable, and it let Gibbs ride ceiling weeks to the top of the leaderboard. ESPN.com

    3) Role clarity (not randomness).
    The timeshares that work don’t shuffle arbitrarily. Miami was a textbook example: De’Von Achane handled the explosive-space and receiving role while Raheem Mostert tilted toward short yardage and veteran stabilization. Even in a split, Achane delivered top-10 PPR production on elite efficiency—78 catches, 592 receiving yards, six receiving TDs—because the part of the job he owned is the one that scores the most fantasy points. FantasyDataNFL.comPro Football Reference

    2024’s poster children (and what they teach us)

    Jahmyr Gibbs (with David Montgomery, Lions)
    Gibbs was deployed like a modern Alvin Kamara—manufactured touches, choice routes, angle routes, motion to isolate linebackers—while Montgomery hammered base fronts and closed drives. The result: Gibbs finished as the RB1 in total PPR from Weeks 1–18. Montgomery didn’t disappear, either: 775 rushing yards and 12 TDs (in 14 games), plus 341 receiving yards. This wasn’t a “handcuff plus star”; it was two startable RBs because the Lions were efficient and predictable in their usage. Takeaway: ceiling lives in the receiving role, but stability from the grinder keeps the offense in scoring position—which feeds both. FantasyProsESPN.comDetroit Lions

    De’Von Achane (with Raheem Mostert, Dolphins)
    Mike McDaniel’s speed-first system made “committee” a feature, not a bug. Achane’s 2024 ledger—907 rushing yards plus 78/592/6 as a receiver—shows why he could be elite even if he didn’t monopolize carries: he dominated the most valuable touches (targets and space plays) on a high-scoring offense. When Tua was in, Achane’s per-game pace bordered on video-game numbers. Lesson: if a split back leads his team’s RBs in routes and explosive touches on an offense that lives in the red zone, he can be elite on 14–16 opportunities per game. NFL.comPro Football ReferenceCBSSports.com

    David Montgomery (with Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions)
    Flip the coin and we still find a timeshare winner. Montgomery’s profile—goal-line dominance on a top offense—made him a weekly RB2 with RB1 spikes. The organization even notes how frequently he found paydirt and how consistently he produced 50+ yards with a TD in 2024; those high-leverage carries kept him fantasy-relevant even when Gibbs stole the headlines. Takeaway: touchdown concentration can keep the “power” side of a committee firmly in your lineup. Detroit Lions

    How to predict the next one

    Use these filters in drafts (or on waivers after Week 1):

    A) Follow routes, not carries.
    Check who led the backfield in routes run last season or is projected to lead this year. In 2024, Gibbs and Achane’s route dominance telegraphed their surge. If a back is the clear two-minute/third-down option and earns motion/slot looks, he owns the valuable touches.

    B) Chase condensed TD trees.
    Detroit is a prime example: red-zone usage condensed around Gibbs/Montgomery. Scan team tendencies—does the coach prefer RBs at the stripe (gap/power, heavy personnel, motion to numbers)? If yes, the “hammer” can log double-digit TDs without 300 touches.

    C) Bet on coaching clarity.
    Committees with defined roles outperform “hot hand” setups. McDaniel (MIA), Ben Johnson/Dan Campbell (DET) and other structure-first play callers make weekly volume more predictable. If the depth chart screams role clarity, you can draft both sides at ADP and profit.

    D) Insist on explosive traits—or elite line play.
    A sub-4.4 back who gets schemed touches doesn’t need 20 carries. Lacking that, a mauler behind a top-10 line can still smash as a TD hog. (Detroit checked both boxes in 2024.)

    Draft strategy: turning timeshares into trophies

    1. Price matters more than role label.
    Timeshares become edges when the market bakes in too much fear. That happened in 2024 with Achane’s projected touch cap and with Montgomery’s “old-school” label. If cost ≪ ceiling outcome, take the swing.

    2. Double-dip the right backfields.
    Stacking both Lions backs was viable in 2024: you captured a huge slice of a great offense with complementary weekly profiles. Do this only when (a) the offense projects top-8 in scoring, and (b) the roles are complementary (receiver/space back + hammer), not duplicative.

    3. Play the weekly archetype, not the name.
    In medium-to-tough matchups, lean into the receiver side of the split (negative script → routes → catches). In projected wins, the hammer gets extra goal-line equity. That’s how you avoided tilting at lineups with Lions/Dolphins backs last year.

    4. Use in-season signals early.
    By Week 2, you’ll know if the committee is valuable: look at red-zone touches, routes, and RPO usage. Don’t wait for “featured back” pressers—act on sticky usage indicators.

    The bottom line

    “Timeshare” is not a fantasy death sentence. In the modern NFL, it’s often the cheat code—especially when the receiving specialist leads routes and explosive touches on a top offense, or when the hammer monopolizes goal-line work on a unit that lives inside the 10. Jahmyr Gibbs (with David Montgomery) and De’Von Achane (with Raheem Mostert) proved it all season in 2024: one back can be truly elite while the other remains startable, because the offense and roles are doing the heavy lifting. When you spot that combination—high-scoring team, clear role splits, and a pass-game alpha in the backfield—lean in. It’s how committee backs become the ones everyone is chasing by Thanksgiving. FantasyProsEat Drink and Sleep FootballESPN.comNFL.com

    Quick receipts from 2024 (for your draft notes):
    • Gibbs: RB1 in total PPR points (Weeks 1–18). FantasyPros
    • Montgomery: 775 rush yds, 12 rush TD in 14 gms (+341 rec yds). ESPN.comDetroit Lions
    • Achane: 907 rush yds, 78 rec, 592 rec yds, 6 rec TD; top-10 PPR RB. NFL.comPro Football Reference

    Now, when your league-mates wrinkle their noses at “committees,” you’ll know better: the right timeshares don’t cap ceilings—they concentrate them.

Verified by MonsterInsights